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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Nov 30 1248 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Nov 2022	109	016
01 Dec 2022	110	029
02 Dec 2022	111	019

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. NOAA AR 3151 produced the largest flare, a long duration C4.2 flare peaking at 13:58 UT. NOAA AR 3151 has now rotated over the west solar limb. NOAA AR 3152 was stable. Two new regions are expected to rotate onto the disk in the next days, increasing the probability of c-class flares. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance of C-class flares.

A filament, stretching from the north east quadrant to the south east quadrant, began to erupt from 14:38 UT on November 29 as seen in SDO/AIA 304. The associated Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) is predominantly directed to the south east. Analysis is ongoing to determine if an Earth impact is expected. No other Earth directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor-storm warning threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain elevated. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at moderate to high levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 580 and 700 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 5 and 10 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced, due to the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream. A further enhancement in the solar wind speed is expected from Dec 01 associated with large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which began to transit the central meridian on November 28.

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled to active levels, with an isolated interval where globally NOAA Kp reached minor geomagnetic storm levels. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active on Nov 30. From December 01, minor storm conditions are likely in response to the next expected high-speed stream arrival.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 031, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Nov 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	024
Odhadovaný Ap	028
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	030 - Na základě 11 stanic

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