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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Dec 01 1250 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Dec 2022	114	025
02 Dec 2022	117	029
03 Dec 2022	119	011

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. Catania sunspot group 6 (NOAA AR 3152) produced the largest flare, an M1 flare peaking at 07:21 UT. Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA AR 3153), is currently rotating onto the solar disk near S16E80 and has produced multiple C-class flares, although due to its location the complexity of the region is difficult to ascertain. Catania sunspot group 7 (NOAA AR 3154) emerged in the southern hemisphere, S38E03, but has been quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares possible and a chance for isolated M-class flares.

The slow Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) reported yesterday, associated with the filament eruption on November 29, is not expected to impact the Earth. Two wide consecutive CMEs were observed to the north and east in LASCO C2 from 01:25 UT December 01, further investigation is ongoing to determine the source of these events. No other Earth directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor-storm warning threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours, decreasing below the threshold again from 18:45 UT November 30. The threshold is expected to be crossed again in the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 510 and 700 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 5 and 12 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to be further enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the influence of the high-speed stream associated with large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which began to transit the central meridian on November 28.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (NOAA KP 3-5 and Local K Dourbes 2-5). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to again reach minor storm levels over the next day in response to the high-speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 051, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 30 Nov 2022

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	025
Odhadovaný Ap	026
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	030 - Na základě 15 stanic

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