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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 03 1239 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Jan 2023	143	004
04 Jan 2023	141	009
05 Jan 2023	146	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low. The GOES X-ray flux reached C4 level from a long duration event from beyond the south-east limb. Low level C-class flares were produced by NOAA active regions 3176, 3177 and 3180. NOAA AR 3176 has shown signs of decay in its trailing spots. NOAA 3179 is approaching the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and ongoing chance for M-class flares.

A partial halo CME was observed towards the east in LASCO C2 from 06:48 UTC January 03, this event was associated with the south east limb flaring activity and also had Type II and Type IV radio emission. The CME is not expected to impact Earth although an arrival of the shock front cannot be excluded and this is further being analysed. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected do so again in the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next days.

The solar wind speed showed a decreasing trend over the past 24 hours, decreasing from values near 480 km/s to around 380 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 4 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) with a variable north-south component (Bz ranging between -5 to 4 nT). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime on January 03. The solar wind associated with the negative polarity coronal hole which began to cross the central meridian on January 01 is expected to then cause an enhanced solar wind speed from late on January 04.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K-dourbes 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on January 03-04, with active conditions likely from January 05.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 097, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Jan 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	131
10cm sluneční tok	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	101 - Na základě 19 stanic

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