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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 04 1237 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Jan 2023	153	027
05 Jan 2023	156	031
06 Jan 2023	159	019

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low. Most of the flares originated from beyond the south-east limb from a region that is expected to rotate onto the disk in the coming days. NOAA AR 3177, 3176 and 3180 are the most complex regions on disk but produced minimal flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and ongoing chance for M-class flares, particularly from the expected new region.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the coronagraph data. A filament near the central meridian erupted from 02:42 UTC January 04 as seen in SDO/AIA 304, analysis is ongoing to determine if there is an Earth- directed component.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold before decreasing sharply in response to geomagnetic activity. It is expected remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next days.

The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field increased, rising from 4nT to 19nT, showing the possible arrival of a slow CME from December 30. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) with short deviations into the negative sector. The field had a variable north-south component for most of the period but became strongly negative from 02 UTC January 04, with a minimum Bz of -12 nT. The solar wind speed values fluctuated between 380 and 470 km/s. The magnetic field is expected to remain enhanced and the solar wind speed is expected to increase over the next days with the expected arrival of the high speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole that began to cross the central meridian on January 01.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled on January 03, increasing to active and minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5 and local K-Dourbes 4) on January 04 in response to the long period of negative Bz. Active to minor storm conditions are expected over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 090, na základě 04 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Jan 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	128
10cm sluneční tok	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	099 - Na základě 17 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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