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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 05 1238 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
05 Jan 2023	156	017
06 Jan 2023	159	021
07 Jan 2023	162	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low. The largest flare was a C8.4 flare from NOAA active region 3177, peaking at 18:45 UTC. Further C-class flares were produced by NOAA active region 3180 and from the new region NOAA AR3182 that has just begun to rotate over the south east limb. NOAA AR 3176 decayed and was inactive. NOAA 3181 showed further sunspot development. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and ongoing chance for M-class flares and a small chance for an X-class flare.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the coronagraph data. The filament eruption reported yesterday near the central meridian is deemed to be directed mostly to the south and will likely miss Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next days.

The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remained elevated around, between 15 and 20 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field switched from the positive to the negative sector from 18:00 UTC January 04 (field directed towards from the Sun). The Bz was predominantly positive, with a short period of negative Bz from 10 UTC January 5 (Bz had a minimum of -12nT). The solar wind speed values were stable around 400 km/s. The magnetic field is expected to remain enhanced and the solar wind speed is expected to increase slightly over the next days with the influence of the solar wind associated with the negative polarity coronal hole that began to cross the central meridian on January 01.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2 and local K-Dourbes 3). Active to minor storm conditions may still be possible in the next days in response to any negative deviation of Bz, given the strong magnetic field magnitude.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 115, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 04 Jan 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	104
10cm sluneční tok	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	095 - Na základě 13 stanic

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