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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jan 08 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Jan 2023	183	003
09 Jan 2023	187	006
10 Jan 2023	190	008

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached moderate levels. Two M1 flares were recorded, peaking at 08:54 UTC and 09:48 UTC on January 08, respectively. These originated from a region beyond the south-east solar limb that is expected to rotate onto the solar disk in the next day. This region also produced a C8 and C7 flares. Multiple high-level C-class flares were produced by NOAA AR 3182 including a C8.7 at 16:54 UTC January 07 and a C9 at 03:44 UTC January 08. NOAA AR 3182 and 3181 are the most complex regions on disk and exhibited further growth. NOAA AR 3180 was stable and quiet. NOAA AR3177 decayed further. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares, M flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next days.

The solar wind speed values ranged between 400 and 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around 7 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) with a variable north-south component (Bz ranging between -5 to 6 nT). January 08 we expect a similar slow solar wind regime with a slight wind speed enhancement possible from January 09, due to the influence of the negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, which began to cross the central meridian on January 06.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA and local K-Dourbes =3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 136, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Jan 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	131 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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