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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Feb 23 1249 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Feb 2023	153	016
24 Feb 2023	154	028
25 Feb 2023	155	021

Bulletin

Moderate Solar flaring activity was recorded. Catania group 94 (NOAA active region 3234) produced several M flares of which the strongest an M2.6 peaking at 13:50UTC. Catania group 94 (NOAA active region 3234) showed further development with emergence of opposite polarity flux in the trailing area. M flaring from this region is likely with also a potential for an X class flare. Catania group 89 (NOAA active region 3229) simplified, particularly in its intermediate area and is now a simple bipolar region with beta type configuration of its photospheric field. dissipation of the trailing spots was observed in Catania group 89 (NOAA active region 3229). Catania group 96 has emerged as a new bipolar group near N19E17. Flaring at M level is expected with a chance for X-class flaring.

No Earth directed CMEs have been identified in coronagraph images.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remains so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A (negative polarity) extension of the southern polar coronal hole has transited the central meridian in previous days and may influence solar wind conditions at Earth from tomorrow.

High speed solar wind conditions have set in somewhat unexpectedly. Solar wind speed increased to around 550km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field increased to over 10nT but is back around 7nT currently. The orientation of the magnetic field continued to indicate connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun). The north-south orientation of the magnetic field was variable. Solar wind conditions are expected to decline but later to be followed with a switch into a negative sector and a renewed increase in solar wind speed associated to the high speed stream form the extension of the southern polar coronal hole.

Geomagnetic conditions remained unsettled locally (local K Belgium 1-3) but the NOAA Kp index did reach to 5- this morning associated to the high speed stream solar wind conditions. Unsettled to active conditions are expected over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 095, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Feb 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	127
10cm sluneční tok	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	108 - Na základě 11 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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