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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Feb 24 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Feb 2023	147	010
25 Feb 2023	147	010
26 Feb 2023	147	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity has remained low, with the largest flare just a C8.9 flare peaking at 18:19UTC from Catania group 94 (NOAA active region 3234). Further flaring at similar level was seen from Catania group 96 (NOAA active region 3235) and Catania group 93 (NOAA active region 3230). A new region, NOAA active region 3236, emerged on disc to the east of Catania group 93 (NOAA active region 3230). Most regions showed mild decay while Catania group 94 (NOAA active region 3234) remains the most complex region with opposite magnetic flux in the trailing section. Flaring at C level is expected with also still a very significant chance for M flaring.

No Earth directed CMEs have been identified in coronagraph images.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remains so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

An equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity started to transit the central meridian this morning and is expected to influence solar wind conditions starting late February 27.

Solar wind speed has seen peaks over 600km/s but this morning decreased steadily to under 500km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 10nT but is now back at a nominal 5nT value. The orientation of the magnetic field was steady in the positive sector (field away from the Sun) until around 23UTC when it started a gradual shift over the negative sector back into the positive sector. It does not appear to be the switch into the negative sector that was anticipated. It is unclear if any speed increase associated to the extension of the southern polar coronal hole must still be expected. Solar wind conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled until late February 27 when we may start to see an increase to high solar wind conditions associated to the coronal hole currently crossing the central meridian.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (local K Belgium and NOAA Kp 1-4). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 120, na základě 04 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Feb 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	154
10cm sluneční tok	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	028
Odhadovaný Ap	023
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	109 - Na základě 11 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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