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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 19 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 Mar 2023	141	011
20 Mar 2023	143	023
21 Mar 2023	143	016

Bulletin

There are presently 3 numbered active regions observed on the visible side of the Sun, all of which have a simple configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta). The solar flaring activity was at low level over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares being detected. The largest flare was a C4.5 flare, peaking at 06:35 UTC on March 19, associated with active region NOAA 3256 (beta class). Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3257 (beta class). This active region rotated into view yesterday, and there are more doing so today. NOAA AR 3251 (alpha class) was inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain mostly at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for isolated M-class flare.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at almost nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s and 460 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was about 5 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT. Similar solar wind regime is expected on March 19 with a slight wind speed enhancement possible for late on March 19 and early on March 20, due to expected influence of the equatorial coronal hole of positive polarity with a small chance of being mixed with glancing blow from a CME which left the solar surface around 10 UTC on March 17th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and K Bel 1-3). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, until the arrival of the high speed stream and possible glancing blow from the CME when active conditions are expected, with possible isolated minor storm periods.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 077, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 Mar 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	044 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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