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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 20 1247 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Mar 2023	145	010
21 Mar 2023	145	018
22 Mar 2023	145	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached moderate levels in the past 24 hours with an M1.3-class flare, peak time 01:48 UTC on March 19th, produced by the largest active region on the visible disk, NOAA 3256 (beta). This region together with NOAA 3257 (alpha) are producing background C-class flaring. The remaining active regions on the visible disk, among which three newly number regions, NOAA 3258 (alpha), NOAA 3259 (beta) and NOAA 3260 (alpha) are simple and have remained silent. The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be mostly at low levels with chances for further isolated M-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. A filament eruption near the south-west limb has occurred in the UTC evening of March 17th and is related to a partial halo CME first seen in LASCO/C2 data around 23 UTC. The bulk of this CME will miss Earth, but a small chance for a minor glancing blow or shock arrival cannot be excluded. The probability for such arrival is rather low and if it arrives it could be mixed within an expected high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole.

The 10 MeV GOES proton flux was slightly elevated over the past 24 hours, remaining well under radiation storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of slightly enhanced slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 382 to 468 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was relatively low with a maximum of 7.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -6.7 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are expected to be slightly enhanced due to a forecasted mild high speed stream arrival and a small chance for possible glancing blow arrivals related to the UTC morning and evening filament eruptions in the south-west sector on March 17th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with possible active periods and small chance for isolated minor storm with the expected mild high speed stream arrival and possible minor glancing blows.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 084, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Mar 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	013
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	073 - Na základě 18 stanic

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