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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 May 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 May 2023	163	023
21 May 2023	167	026
22 May 2023	167	016

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with seven M-class flares and several C-class flares being detected. The largest flare was an M6.5 flare, peaking at 07:32 UTC on May 20, associated with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3311 (beta-delta class). AR 3311 the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar surface and produced the majority of the flaring activity. Another active region, NOAA AR 3312 (beta class) produced one lower level M-class flare and multiple C-class flares. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA ARs 3305 (beta class) and 3313 (alpha class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The flaring activity is expected to remain moderate with possible M-class flare and a chance of X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Few coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

Solární bouře

At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed was approximately 330 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was weak, below 7 nT. The solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed later on, with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching the values up to 20 nT at around 03:15 UTC on May 20. The southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranged between -17 nT and 11 nT. The solar wind velocity followed an increasing trend, rising from 330 km/s to 530 km/s. This is probably associated with the arrival of the expected HSS from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated for the next days with a low probability for further minor enhancements from late on May 21, due to the CME associated with a filament eruption in the southwest sector on May 17th, which may have a glancing blow at Earth.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to active (NOAA-Kp=2-4) with a single moderate storm registered globally with NOAA Kp reaching 6- during the interval 00:00-06:00 UTC on May 20. Locally only quiet to active conditions were observed over Belgium (K-Bel=2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active in the next days, with a chance of isolated moderate and minor storm periods during next days due to influence of the HSS and possible glancing blow from the CME.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 139, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 May 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	134 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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