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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 16 1233 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
16 Jun 2023	165	035
17 Jun 2023	170	024
18 Jun 2023	168	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.1 flare peaking at 10:38 UTC on June 16, associated with NOAA AR 3337. Another M1 flare, associated with NOAA AR 3338 was observed with peak time 05:30 UTC on June 16. NOAA AR 3338, 3336, 3335 and along with NOAA AR 3333 are the most complex regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3336 also produced a long duration C9.7 flare, peaking at 12:55 UTC June 15. The other regions on the disk are magnetically simple and did not produce any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

In the last 24 hours there were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected the influence of the expected corotating Interaction Region (CIR). The interplanetary magnetic field increase to values around 20nT, peaking at 21:00 UTC. Bz had a minimum value of -13nT and was predominantly negative. The solar wind speed increased from 350km/s to values above 650 km/s. The magnetic field orientation switched from the positive sector to the negative sector (field directed away from the Sun) from around 13:00 UTC June 15. The interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed are expected to continue to be elevated over next day and the high solar wind speeds are expected to persist over the next few days due to continued influence of the high speed stream.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm conditions globally and minor storm conditions locally (NOAA KP 4-6 and K-Bel 3-5). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at active to minor storm levels with further isolated moderate storm conditions also possible, particularly on June 16.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is to remain below this threshold for the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 127, na základě 22 stanic.

Solární indexy za 15 Jun 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	049
AK Wingst	026
Odhadovaný Ap	027
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	119 - Na základě 30 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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