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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 May 23 1238 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
23 May 2023	160	013
24 May 2023	162	015
25 May 2023	160	019

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an impulsive M1.9-flare, start time 13:30 UTC, peak time 13:37 UTC, end time 13:58 UTC on May 22nd, produced by NOAA AR 3312 (beta). This region produced a few low C-class flaring as well. The remaining multiple C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3311 (beta-gamma-delta), which has slightly reduced its size and trailing sunspots, but continues to be the most complex sunspot group on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 3305 has now fully rotated behind the west limb, followed by NOAA 3308 (beta). NOAA AR 3314 has decayed into plage, while a new faint regions has developed to the south of NOAA AR 3311. Active regions NOAA 3310 (beta) and NOAA 3313 (alpha) have been mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next days with some chances for isolated X-class flaring from NOAA AR 3311.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A slow faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery after 14:00 UTC on May 22nd. The CME is related to the impulsive low M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3312 with an accompanying on disc dimming and a type II radio burst detected around 13:40 UTC. The bulk of the CME is expected to miss Earth, but a weak glancing blow could arrive late on May 25th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a high speed stream (HSS) arrival from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity reached 688 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained slightly elevated with a maximum value of 10.43 nT and a minimum Bz of -9.41 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next days with the ongoing HSS passage.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally unsettled to active. Quiet to active conditions were observed locally over Belgium. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with remaining chances for isolated minor storms under the ongoing high speed stream influence and due to a possible glancing blow ICME arrival late on May 25th.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has reached the 1000 pfu threshold and remained close to it in the interval of 14:00 and 17:30 UTC on May 22nd. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is currently approaching the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to exceeded in the upcoming hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to periodically exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at the boundary of nominal to moderate levels at fist and then increase towards moderate levels over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 126, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 May 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	023
Odhadovaný Ap	026
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	131 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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