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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 May 22 1254 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
22 May 2023	163	018
23 May 2023	163	028
24 May 2023	163	016

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an M2.6-flare with start time 15:49 UTC, peak time 16:04 UTC, end time 16:31 UTC on May 21st. The flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3311 (beta-gamma-delta), which is currently the largest, most active and most complex sunspot group on the visible solar disc. Multiple low to high C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3305 (beta) from the west limb. The remaining six active regions have been relatively simple and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with some chances for isolated X-class flaring from NOAA AR 3311.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A fast full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 00:12 UTC on May 22nd. The CME is back-sided and is not expected to impact Earth. No Earth- directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity equatorial coronal hole has crossed the central meridian on May 21st. An associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth as early as May 23rd.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) Solar wind parameters were under the mixed influence of a high speed stream (HSS) arrival from a negative polarity coronal hole and a weak ICME arrival related to the flare-driven CME from May 17th. The solar wind velocity decreased varied between 439 and 657 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 13.22 nT and a minimum Bz of -10.57 nT. The B field was switching orientation between the positive and the negative sector (directed away from and towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next 24 hours with the ongoing ICME passage with possible further enhancements on May 23rd with the expected HSS arrival.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours have reached globally moderate storm levels between 18:00 and 24:00 UTC on May 21st. Locally over Belgium mostly active conditions were registered with an isolated minor storm period between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC on May 21st. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with chances for minor to moderate storm intervals due to the expected high speed stream arrival on May 23rd.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days depending on flaring and possible CMEs activity, particularly from NOAA AR 3311.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has reached the 1000 pfu threshold between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC on May 21st and returned to background values thereafter. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 136, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 21 May 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	045
AK Wingst	024
Odhadovaný Ap	024
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	138 - Na základě 27 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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