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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 18 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
18 Jun 2023	162	010
19 Jun 2023	165	009
20 Jun 2023	163	018

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.3 flare peaking at 00:31 UTC on June 18, associated with NOAA AR 3336. NOAA AR 3333 exhibited sunspot growth and along with NOAA AR 3533 is one of the more complex regions on the solar disk. Two new regions rotated over the east limb, NOAA AR 3339 and an as yet unnumbered region located at N22E66. These are large regions but magnetically simple. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A large filament eruption, which stretched from the central meridian to the north west quadrant was observed in SDO/AIA from 17:57 UTC June 17. This eruption is currently being analysed to see if there could be a possible Earth directed component. A second eruption near the negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere at the central meridian was observed from 23:37 UTC June 17, but the associated Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) appears narrow and the south west in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and is not considered to be Earth directed.

Koronální díra

A small positive negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere and a larger negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere began to transit the central meridian on June 17.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of the high-speed stream. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 nT and 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -4nT and was predominantly negative. The solar wind speed decreased from 600 km/s to values around 380 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed are expected to continue to slowly decrease and reflect a slow solar wind regime. A further enhancement in the solar wind could be expected from June 20 in response to the solar wind associated with the small coronal holes currently at the central meridian.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 2-3 and K-Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on June 18 and 19. Active conditions may be possible from June 20.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was increasing and exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold from 06:36 UT June 18. It is expected to continue to exceed this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 156, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 17 Jun 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	126 - Na základě 27 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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