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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 29 1246 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Jun 2023	155	012
30 Jun 2023	155	013
01 Jul 2023	155	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the last 24 hours with several low C-class flares. The larger flare was a C5.5-class flares produced at 18:39 UTC on Jun 28 by the NOAA Active Region AR-3354, which has developed and became the most complex region on the disc (Beta-gamma-delta). The other complex active region, NOAA Active Region AR-3354, has only produced several flares below C1.2-class. We expect the activity remaining mostly at low levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters reflected mostly slow solar wind regime. The wind speed was between 450 km/s to 520 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) slightly increased to the current values of 77 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating between -6.4 nT and 5.5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately negative, directed toward the Sun during the past 24 hours. Mild enhancement of the solar wind conditions are expected due to the arrival of the high-speed streams from the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp<4 and K_BEL<4). Geomagnetic activity is expected to remaid quiet to unsettled. Possible unsettled to active condition may be expected with the solar wind enhancement due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated with the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period. It is expected to remain close to the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 101, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Jun 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	128
10cm sluneční tok	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	130 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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