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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jun 30 1259 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Jun 2023	162	017
01 Jul 2023	162	017
02 Jul 2023	162	017

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at moderated levels over the last 24 hours with several low C-class flares and one M-class flare. The M3.8-class flares produced at 14:14 UTC on Jun 29 by the NOAA Active Region AR-3354, which is now the most complex region on the disc (Beta-gamma-delta). The other complex active regions have also produced several C-class flares. We expect the activity remaining mostly at low to moderated levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters showed mild enhancement due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated to the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.The wind speed ranged between 450 km/s to 550 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) slightly increased up to the 8.1 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating between -5.4 nT and 4.2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was negative, directed toward the Sun, then around 01:00 UTC it rotated to the positive sector. Mild enhancement of the solar wind conditions are expected for the following day.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp=4 and K_BE=4) due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated to the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24, and the negative value of the southward component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period. It is expected to remain close to the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 107, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Jun 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	021
Odhadovaný Ap	021
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	106 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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