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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Jul 24 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Jul 2023	172	006
25 Jul 2023	175	009
26 Jul 2023	177	015

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3373 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 81) produced the brightest event, a C9 today 04:26 UTC. NOAA AR 3372 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 78) and NOAA AR 3379 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania group 91) also produced bright C-class events, with the brightest being a C8 in both cases. Further C-class flaring activity is very likely in the next 24 hours. An isolated M-class flare either from NOAA AR 3372, 3373, 3379 or 3380 (magnetic type Beta) is likely, while there is a small chance of an X-flare for the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO2/SOHO data as launched yesterday 15:05 UTC. It is expected to deliver a glancing blow to the Earth's environment in the morning of 26 Jul.

Koronální díra

A small, southern, coronal hole (CH) with positive polarity will cross the solar central meridian today. The resulting High Speed Streams (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective on 27 Jul.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed gradually dropped from 490 to 300 km/s in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 and 7 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost exclusively directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) with negative polarity is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours, as a result of the Corona Hole (CH) crossing that took place at 20 Jul.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 1 to 2+ and K BEL 1 to 1) during the past 24 hours, with the exception of a locally unsettled (K BEL 3) periods yesterday (15:00-18:00 UTC) and today (00:00-03:00 UTC). They are expected to continue at quiet levels both globally and locally for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 137, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Jul 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	137 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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