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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Aug 20 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Aug 2023	148	015
21 Aug 2023	146	011
22 Aug 2023	145	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.7 flare peaking at 06:26 UTC on August 20, associated with NOAA AR3409. NOAA AR3409 has, however, decayed significantly over the period. NOAA AR 3403 also produced low C-class flares. The remaining regions were mostly stable or in decay and were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters showed further enhancement. The interplanetary magnetic field increased from 3 nT to near 10nT. Bz had a minimum value of -6 nT. The solar wind speed increased further from 450km/s to 690 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on August 20 and 21, while the Earth remains under the influence for the high-speed stream, slowly returning to nominal conditions from on August 22.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3, K Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible on August 20 due to the ongoing high speed stream influence.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold on August 20 and is likely to increase on August 21 and 22. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 107, na základě 25 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Aug 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	134 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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