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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Sep 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Sep 2023	149	013
16 Sep 2023	149	018
17 Sep 2023	147	015

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with two M-class flares and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flares of the period were an M1.9 flare, peaking at 19:31 UTC on Sept 14 and an M2.5 flare, peaking at 21:26 on Sept 15, associated with NOAA AR 3429 (beta class). This region, that has slightly simplified, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Isolated C-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3423 (beta class), NOAA AR 3425 (beta class) and by NOAA AR 3433 (alpha class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data from 07:30 UTC on Sept 14th. The CME is associated with a GOES M1.4 flare and a filament eruption, that occurred in the northwestern quadrant of the Sun from around 06:26 UTC on September 14th. The CME is directed to the north-west and is estimated to give a glancing blow to Earth's environment either late on Sept 16 or early on Sept 17. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

A positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere has reached the central meridian today.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly elevated. The solar wind speed values ranged between 430 km/s and 520 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic decreased from 11 nT to the values around 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -10 nT and 7 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly elevated during the next days due to the high-speed stream influence, with a further enhancement possible on Sept 16 – Sept 17 due to the predicted arrival of CME from Sept 14.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a single active period registered globally (NOAA-Kp=4) during the interval 18-00 UTC on Sept 14. Locally a minor storm period (K-Bel=5) was observed over Belgium between 21-00 UTC on Sept 14. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of increasing to active conditions and isolated minor storm periods from late on Sept 16 - early on Sept 17, due to a possible arrival of the CME from Sept 14.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 123, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Sep 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	145
10cm sluneční tok	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	023
Odhadovaný Ap	022
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	143 - Na základě 26 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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