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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Aug 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 Aug 2023	150	014
20 Aug 2023	148	009
21 Aug 2023	146	006

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was an impulsive C5.8 flare peaking at 06:48 UTC on August 19, associated with NOAA AR3406. NOAA AR 3409 was also active, producing minor C-class flares. A new region rotated over the north-east limb, numbered NOAA AR3412. This and the remaining regions were mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations

Koronální díra

A small negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere began to traverse the central meridian on August 18.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing weak negative polarity high speed stream influence. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 11nT to near 3nT. Bz had a minimum value of -7nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 450km/s and 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on August 19, while the Earth remains under the influence for the high- speed stream, slowly returning to nominal conditions on August 20.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA KP 1-3) with active intervals locally (K-Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels, with active periods possible on August 19 due to the ongoing high speed stream influence.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 133, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 Aug 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	125 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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