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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Oct 31 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
31 Oct 2023	137	012
01 Nov 2023	140	004
02 Nov 2023	140	004

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with isolated C-class flaring. The strongest activity was an impulsive C5.7 flare, peak time at 00:23 UTC on Oct 31st, produced by NOAA AR 3473 (beta-gamma), which has exhibited some growth and increased its magnetic complexity. Multiple low C-class flares were produced by NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma), which underwent significant growth. NOAA AR 3475 has decayed into plage and NOAA AR 3472 (beta) has remained silent. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with likely C-class flares and low chances for isolated M-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the diminishing influence of a high speed stream arrival. The solar wind velocity reached a maximum of 587 km/s and has decreased to below 500 km/s at the time of writing. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to decrease towards background slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to unsettled with NOAA Kp ranging between 2- and 3+. Several active periods were registered over Belgium with local K index reaching 4 between 11 UTC and 14 UTC On Oct 30th. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with remaining chances for isolated active periods and mostly quiet conditions are expected thereafter as the solar wind conditions return to nominal slow solar wind regime.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and ease up to nominal levels after.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 090, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 30 Oct 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	107
10cm sluneční tok	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	075 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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