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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Nov 01 1247 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Nov 2023	150	006
02 Nov 2023	148	005
03 Nov 2023	147	004

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels with an M1.2 flare, start time 06:07, end time 06:43, peak time 06:26 UTC on Nov 1st from NOAA AR 3477 (beta), which rotated on disc from the east limb. The region is currently the second largest region on the visible solar disc and was responsible for most of the C-class flaring activity, including a C6.9 flare peak time 00:41 UTC on Nov 1st. The remaining low levels of activity were produced by NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma-delta), which is the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc, by NOAA AR 3472 (beta) and by the newly numbered region NOAA 3476 (beta). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with another ongoing M-class flare at the time of writing and at low to moderate levels in the days after with likely C-class flares and increasing chances for M-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Coronal mass ejections: A filament eruption in the south-east quadrant late on Oct 31st resulted in a south-west coronal mass ejection (CME), first detected by LASCO C2 at 21:36 UTC. The estimated projected velocity of the CME is around 500 km/s. Based on the location of the filament the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but a glancing blow is possible to arrive on Nov 4th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have declined towards slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 443 to 540 km/s and is currently close to 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak with a maximum value of 4.7 nT and a minimum Bz of -4 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at background slow solar wind levels in the upcoming days.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours and mostly quiet conditions are expected on Nov 2nd and Nov 3rd.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 122, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 31 Oct 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	107 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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