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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Nov 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Nov 2023	137	007
14 Nov 2023	135	007
15 Nov 2023	133	014

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

There are five active regions visible on the disk. Flaring activity has been low, with only minor C-class flaring in the last 24 hours. The strongest one was a C2.2 flare from NOAA AR 3484 (beta magnetic field configuration), peaking at 01:46 UTC. NOAA AR 3483 has a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration while the other regions have simpler beta magnetic field configuration. More C-class flares will occur and M-class flares are possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours. There were two wide CMEs directed towards the west on 12 November which are not expected to affect the Earth.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, the Earth was under the influence of an ICME corresponding to the 9 November CME (and probably a glancing blow from another CME). Solar wind speed showed a decreasing profile from 500 to 400 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field reaching 11nT, with a period of several hours of Bz reaching -8nT. A return to slow solar wind conditions is expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels, both locally and at planetary levels (NOAA KP 5, K_Bel 5) due to the effects of the ICME arrival. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu, as measured by GOES 16 from 18:00 UT on 12 November until midnight. It may increase over the threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 069, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Nov 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	090 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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