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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Nov 14 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Nov 2023	134	016
15 Nov 2023	130	007
16 Nov 2023	124	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

There are six active regions visible on the disk. Flaring activity has been low, with only minor C-class flaring in the last 24 hours. The strongest one was a C2.9 flare from NOAA AR 3477 (beta magnetic field configuration), peaking at 20:50 UTC on 13 November. NOAA AR 3483 has a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration while the other regions have simpler beta magnetic field configuration. Most of these active regions are rotation out of view over the west limb. More C-class flares are expected.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, the Earth was under the influence of an ICME corresponding probably to an early arrival of the CME from 10 November. The ICME arrived around 16:20 UTC on 13 November with an interplanetary magnetic field reaching 15 nT (with positive Bz) and solar wind speed around 450 km/s. Similar disturbed conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA KP 3, K_Bel 3). Since Bz was positive within the ICME so far, its geomagnetic impact was minor. Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours, with possible active and minor storm periods if Bz turns negative.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 060, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Nov 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	080
10cm sluneční tok	134
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	074 - Na základě 14 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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