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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jan 03 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Jan 2024	146	013
04 Jan 2024	148	012
05 Jan 2024	150	010

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.1-flare, with peak time 18:30 UTC on January 02, associated with NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma). There are currently 3 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 is the most active and magnetically complex region on disk and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3534 (beta) has decreased in size and remained inactive. NOAA AR 3537 (beta) was stable and produced some minor C-flares. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with M-class flares expected and X-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected in LASCO C2 data one at 11:12 UTC on January 02, it was directed towards the west and originated from the backside of the Sun. No impact is expected at Earth.

Solární bouře

Solar wind parameters show the arrival of a shock at 04:50 on January 03 with solar wind speed jumping from 410 km/s to 460 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field jumping from 7nT to 12 nT. This shock is likely associated with the arrival of the CME detected at 22:00 UTC on December 31, in LASCO C2 data which was associated with an X5.0-flare. Over the entire last 24 hours’ period, the Bz reached a minimum value of -6 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). In the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to return to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active globally and locally (Kp 4 and K Bel 4). Quiet to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced and is expected to cross the 10 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 060, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Jan 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	077
10cm sluneční tok	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	065 - Na základě 11 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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