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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jan 30 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Jan 2024	139	010
31 Jan 2024	141	018
01 Feb 2024	145	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 3559) was the most active producing 8 C-class flares including a C6.0 flare with peak time 14:56 UTC. This region has now turned over the north-west limb. Catania Sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 3565) also produced low-level C-class flares. A new region has emerged in the south-west numbered Catania sunspot group 50 (NOAA 3566). One of the largest and more complex regions on disk now is Catania sunspot group 54 (NOAA 3567) that rotated over the north east limb. Two new sunspot groups as recorded by Catania have also emerged but are very small (51 and 53). The solar flaring activity is expected to decrease slightly and to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a slight chance for an X- class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The CME reported yesterday seen in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 04:24 UTC on January 29 is expected to miss Earth but a shock could be expected at Earth early on January 31.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters were slightly elevated, likely due to the week influence of the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal holes which crossed the central meridian on January 27. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 8nT. Bz ranged between -6 and +5nT. The solar wind speed increased from 400 km/s to a maximum of around 520 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected continue to be slightly enhanced on January 30, due to the ongoing weak influence of the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal holes. Further enhancements may also be expected from January 31 due to a possible ICME glancing blow.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (local K Bel 1-2 and NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels on January 30 and active conditions may be possible on January 31 due to a possible ICME glancing blow.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux exceeded the 10pfu threshold, reaching a maximum value of 130 pfu as measured by GOES-18 at 18:00 UTC January 29. The flux then gradually decreased and at time of reporting is once again below the 10 pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to be elevated over the next 24 hours and could rise over the threshold briefly again, before continuing to gradually decrease.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 075, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Jan 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	072 - Na základě 22 stanic

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