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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jan 07 1252 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Jan 2024	144	008
08 Jan 2024	146	014
09 Jan 2024	150	014

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.1-flare, with peak time 15:35 UTC on January 06, associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma). There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk, in addition a new active region has rotated over the eastern limb and another active region has emerged near the centre of the solar disk both are yet unnumbered. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma), NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3540 (beta-gamma-delta) are the most magnetically complex region on disk and have produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3534 (beta) has started to rotate over the west limb. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 15:12 UTC on January 06, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a filament eruption observed in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 in the north-east quadrant of the Sun at 14:50 UTC on January 06. Further analysis is ongoing.

Koronální díra

Two small high latitude positive polarity coronal holes are passing the central meridian. One in the northern half of the Sun and the other in the Southern half. No impact from these coronal holes is expected at Earth.

Solární bouře

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE, appears to decline from around 340 km/s to around 310 km/s but there is a data gap in the ACE data between 21:40 UTC on January 06 and 08:36 UTC on January 07. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 2 nT and 3 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with a positive polarity coronal hole and the possible arrival of a CME from January 05.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold and continues to gently decline. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 170, na základě 04 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Jan 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	141 - Na základě 08 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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