Prohlížíte si archiv pondělí 11. prosince 2023

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Dec 11 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Dec 2023	128	007
12 Dec 2023	128	010
13 Dec 2023	128	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.4 flare, peaking at 22:43 on Dec 10, associated with the NOAA AR 3511. This region, that is rotating out of view over the west limb, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Isolated C-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3508 (alpha class), NOAA AR 3513 (beta-gamma class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and increased chances for M-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

A large equatorial positive polarity coronal hole began to transit the central meridian on Dec 11.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied between 370 km/h and 450 km/h. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 4 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -3 nT and 3 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on Dec 11- 12 due to the arrival of a high- speed stream from the mid-latitude south coronal hole with a positive magnetic polarity that has crossed the central median on December 07.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels, with a small chance of increasing to unsettled and active conditions on Dec 11 – Dec 12, due to a possible HSS influence.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was ranging around the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours due to the past fast solar wind conditions. It is expected to remain close to 1000 pfu during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low to moderate levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 091, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Dec 2023

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	133 - Na základě 14 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

Všechny časy v UTC

<< Přejít na stránku s denním přehledem