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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Feb 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 Feb 2024	150	011
20 Feb 2024	146	013
21 Feb 2024	142	010

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6.7-flare, with peak time 09:40 UTC on February 19, associated with NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3583 (beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex region and have produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3583 (beta-gamma) has started to rotate over the west limb and NOAA AR 3586 (alfa) has increased in size. All other regions on disk have simple magnetic configuration and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 10:00 UTC on February 18, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is primarily directed towards the South from the Earth’s perspective and has no clear on disk signature it is therefore deemed to be back-sided. No impact is expected at Earth.

Solární bouře

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE, appears to decline from around 335 km/s to around 270 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field Declined from 7 nT and 3 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -4 nT. The phi-angle was in the positive sector (directed away the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance for a weak enhancement late on Feb 19th or early on Feb 20th due to possible glancing blow arrival associated with the Feb 16th filament eruption.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 2). Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail during the next days. Unsettled to isolated active levels might be reached late on Feb 19th or early on Feb 20th related to a possible glancing blow ICME arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease and, although still slightly elevated, remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 075, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 Feb 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	086 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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