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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Feb 24 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Feb 2024	175	008
25 Feb 2024	177	016
26 Feb 2024	179	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. Six M-class flares were produced by NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). The largest flare was a M4.5-flare, with peak time 06:34 UTC on February 24. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3586 (alfa) has been stable and inactive. NOAA AR 3591 (alfa), NOAA AR 3592 (beta) and NOAA AR 3594 (beta) have rotated over the east limb. NOAA AR 3593 (beta) has emerged on the solar disk close to the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible and a chance for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

Two negative polarity coronal holes have passed the central meridian. One in the northern half of the Sun at high latitude and the other in the Southern half at low latitude. A high-speed stream from the southern coronal hole is expected to impact the Earth early on the 25th of February.

Solární bouře

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 290 km/s to 362 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 2 nT and 7 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods on the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole and the possible glancing blow arrival of a CME from February 21.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (Kp 1-2 and K Bel 1-2). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 105, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Feb 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	134
10cm sluneční tok	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	104 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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