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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Feb 25 1259 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
25 Feb 2024	183	013
26 Feb 2024	185	011
27 Feb 2024	187	010

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.8-flare, with peak time 17:56 UTC on February 24 associated with NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). The second largest flare was C5.8-flare, with peak time 17:25 associated with NOAA AR 3592 (beta). There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3586 (alfa) has started to rotate over the west limb. A new yet unnumbered active region has started to emerge on the north-east quadrant of the visible Solar disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible and a chance for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s, was detected in LASCO C2 data at 17:00 UTC on February 24, it was mainly directed towards the east and is associated with a C5.8-flare, with peak time 17:25 associated with NOAA AR 3592. No impact from this CME is expected at Earth.

Koronální díra

Two negative polarity coronal holes have passed the central meridian. One in the northern half of the Sun at high latitude and the other in the Southern half at low latitude. The Southern coronal hole is currently in a geo-effective position.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on February 23 and became further perturbed because of the arrival of a ICME from February 21. A shock in the solar wind shows the arrival of the high-speed stream. The solar wind speed jumped from around 309 km/s to around 380 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 5 nT to 10 nT at 16:20 UTC on February 24. At around 00:40 UTC on February 25 the Earth came under the influence of a ICME after which the solar wind speed reached maximum values of around 450 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field reached a value of 11 nT, with a minimum Bz value of -10 nT. Over the entire period the phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods on the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to be disturbed under the influence of the high-speed-stream and ICME.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally reached unsettled conditions (Kp 3 and K Bel 3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 118, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 Feb 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	104 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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