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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Apr 01 1249 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Apr 2024	133	010
02 Apr 2024	133	010
03 Apr 2024	133	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was moderate. The largest flare of the period was an M3.9 flare with peak time 01:32 UTC on April 01 produced by the large Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which has now rotated over the west limb. The other region (NOAA AR 3625) show low activity with C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with possible further flares from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615) as it remains just over the limb, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to midlatitudes has began to cross the central meridian on March 31.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions remained elevated with the arrival of the high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 27. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 450 km/s and 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was between 5.0 nT and 9.8 nT. From March 31 around 20:00 UTC, the Bz component was mostly negative and reached a minimum value of -7.8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The Earth is expected to continue to be under the influence of this high-speed stream on April 01 and April 02.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled to active levels (NOAA Kp 4- and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels on April 01 and April 02.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase from flares associated with Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615).

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels over the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 031, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 31 Mar 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	134
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	066 - Na základě 28 stanic

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