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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Apr 02 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Apr 2024	125	007
03 Apr 2024	125	014
04 Apr 2024	125	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. Since the large Catania sunspot region 22 (NOAA AR 3615) has rotated over the west limb, the X-ray flux has decreased and is currently below the C level. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with possible C-class flares and a very low probability for an M-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to mid-latitudes has now fully crossed the central meridian and is currently on the geo-effective location. Another negative polarity equatorial coronal hole has began to cross the central meridian on April 01.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions remained slightly elevated due to the arrival of the high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 27. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 407 km/s and 565 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was between 4.0 nT and 8.4 nT. The Bz component was mostly fluctuating and reached a minimum value of -5.4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to return to a slow solar wind speed regime for a very short period. It will be then followed by some enhancements due to the high-speed stream from the negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to mid-latitudes, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 31.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K Bel 2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled with possible active conditions on April 02 and April 03 associated to a high-speed stream from the negative polarity northern polar coronal which began to traverse the central meridian on March 31.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. There is still a small chance of an increase from flares associated with Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615) that has rotated over the west limb.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels over the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 046, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Apr 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	031 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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