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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Aug 10 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Aug 2024	290	018
11 Aug 2024	280	027
12 Aug 2024	275	025

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the last 24 hours, with 9 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an M5.3 flare peaking at 02:37 UTC on August 10. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta gamma delta). This region produced 6 further low-level M-Class flares and is the largest most complex region on the disk. An M4.5 flare with peak time 21:23 UTC August 09, was also recorded between NOAA AR 3777 and 3774. NOAA AR 3781 also produced isolated M-class flaring. NOAA AR 3775 and NOAA AR 3772 decayed and are about to rotate off the disk over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) mostly directed to the south-west, was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 21:45 UTC on August 09, associated with the M4.5 flare with peak time 21:23 UTC. Initial analysis suggests that this CME may have a glancing blow at Earth late on August 12. A faint CME to the north east in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 02:54 UTC, possibly associated with the M5.3 flare at 02:37 UTC, is also being analysed.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime for most of the period. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 5 nT with a minimum value of -5nT recorded. The solar wind speed decreased from around 440 to 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). At 11:57 UTC August 10 there was a jump in the interplanetary magnetic field up to 11 nT, likely associated with a possible CME arrival. Ongoing influence from CMEs, creating enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field, are expected on August 10. Further enhancements could be expected late on August 11, due to the possible arrival of the CME of August 08, associated with the X1.3 flare.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at unsettled to active conditions on August 10, with possible minor to moderate storm conditions on August 11 and 12 in response to possible CME arrivals.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase in the proton flux in the next days as there are several complex regions on disk moving into a geoeffective position, from which any strong flares bring the possibly for a proton event impacting the Earth.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 273, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Aug 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	306
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	266 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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