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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Aug 11 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Aug 2024	270	024
12 Aug 2024	250	030
13 Aug 2024	235	034

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hours, with 3 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an M1.6 flare peaking at 05:28 UTC on August 11. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta gamma delta). This region is the most complex on disk and also produced at M1 flare with peak time 00:31 UTC August 11. An M1.2 flare, with peak time 15:16 UTC August 10, was recorded from NOAA AR3782. NOAA AR 3777 also produced high level C-class flaring. The other regions were stable and quiet, including newly numbered NOAA AR 3785 in the south-east quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The faint CME to the north east in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 02:54 UTC August 10, possibly associated with the M5.3 flare at 02:37 UTC, first reported yesterday, is determined to have an Earth directed component and is predicted to arrive early on August 13.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected an ICME arrival. From 11:57 UTC August 10, a jump was recorded in the interplanetary magnetic field increasing from 5 to 11 nT, At this time, the solar wind speed increased sharply from 340 to 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field then increased gradually further to values around 21 nT and the solar wind speed reached values of 500 km/s. The Bz component was mostly positive with a minimum Bz value of -16nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Further possible ICME arrivals are expected from late on August 11 to early August 13 which make cause further enhancements in the solar wind parameters.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels, increasing to active conditions on August 11 with an isolated period of minor storm conditions from 06:00 – 09:00 UTC (NOAA Kp 2-5 and Local K BEL 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at active to minor storm levels on August 11, with possible moderate storm conditions on August 12 to 13, in response to further possible CME arrivals.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase in the proton flux in the next days as there are several complex regions on disk moving into a geoeffective position, from which any strong flares bring the possibly for a proton event impacting the Earth.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 245, na základě 20 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Aug 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	291
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	268 - Na základě 23 stanic

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