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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 19 1236 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 Sep 2024	162	016
20 Sep 2024	164	011
21 Sep 2024	164	014

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with background C-class flaring. There are seven numbered regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA AR 3825 (beta- gamma-delta) remaining the largest and most complex region. Most of the flaring activity was produced by NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma), which is now approaching the west limb, NOAA AR 3825 and NOAA AR 3829 (beta). The solar flaring activity is likely to be predominantly at low levels over the coming days with 50% chances of M-class flares and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly perturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 9.4 nT with Bz as low as - 8.8 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 375 km/s to 532 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be slightly perturbed in the upcoming days under the possible influence of two mild high speed stream arrivals.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were predominantly quiet to active with an isolated minor geomagnetic storm registered by the global Kp index between 00:00 and 03:00 UTC on Sept 18th. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions with small chances for further isolated minor storms are expected over the next days.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has returned to nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 108, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 Sep 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	109 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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