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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Sep 2024	160	006
21 Sep 2024	158	012
22 Sep 2024	158	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with background C-class flaring. There are six numbered regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA AR 3828 (beta-gamma- delta) growing to become the largest and most complex region. Most of the flaring activity was produced by NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma) from the west limb, NOAA AR 3825 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3829 (beta). The solar flaring activity is likely to be predominantly at low levels over the coming days with 40% chances of M-class flares and 5% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly perturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 9.1 nT with Bz as low as - 8.7 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 340 km/s to 499 km/s. The B field phi angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be slightly perturbed in the upcoming days under the possible influence of mild high speed stream.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with isolated active periods are expected over the next days.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at the border of nominal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 126, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Sep 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	183
10cm sluneční tok	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	017
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	110 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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