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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
25 Sep 2024	172	038
26 Sep 2024	172	019
27 Sep 2024	172	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. NOAA ARs 3828 (beta), and 3833 (beta) and 3835 (beta-gamma) were the most active ARs in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3836 produced the strongest flare of the day, a C4 flare with peak at 07:56 UTC, this AR has a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration and has grown in size in the last hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Solar wind conditions at Earth show the arrival of the expected (mild) high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole, with solar wind speed up to 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 12 nT and Bz down to -10 nT. In the next 24 hours, more disturbed solar wind conditions can be expected with the possible arrival of a glancing blow from the CME from 22 September.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor levels both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel from 3 to 5). Up to moderate storm conditions could occur in the next 24 hours due to an ICME arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has been below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 140, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 Sep 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	191
10cm sluneční tok	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	138 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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