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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Oct 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
22 Oct 2024	164	022
23 Oct 2024	166	024
24 Oct 2024	168	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was very low with no significant flares being detected in the last 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk with SIDC Sunspot Group 275 (NOAA Active Region 3863; beta-delta) being the most complex one. SIDC Sunspot Group 285 (NOAA Active Region 3856; beta) has started to rotate over the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3868) is currently rotating on disk from the south-east limb. Some further active regions behind the east limb seem to be approaching the visible disc. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a chance of M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 71) is currently crossing the central meridian. The associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting from October 25.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 350 km/s to 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak, below 7 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on Oct 22- 23 due to arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on Oct 18.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet globally (NOAA Kp: 0 to 2) and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium (K-BEL: 1 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance of isolated active periods due to possible high-speed stream arrival associated with the positive polarity coronal hole.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 121, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 21 Oct 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	162 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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