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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
17 Dec 2024	167	032
18 Dec 2024	167	007
19 Dec 2024	167	026

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924) currently located at S19W42 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest one was an C4.5 flare peaking at 01:30 UTC, coming from an AR behind the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

A shock was observed in the solar wind at 4:40 UT (in DSCOVR data), the speed jumped from 400 to 500 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field from 7 to 20 nT. The shock was driven by an ICME, corresponding to the expected arrival of the CME from 14 December. The solar wind speed reached 680 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field reached 32 nT, with Bz going down to -16 nT (it is now positive). More disturbed conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Due to the shock and ICME arrival, Kp reached 5 (minor storm) and K_Bel 4 (active), more disturbed geomagnetic conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours (in particular if Bz turns negative).

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 087, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 16 Dec 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	013
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	103 - Na základě 09 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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