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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jan 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Jan 2025	158	011
14 Jan 2025	160	019
15 Jan 2025	162	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C8.1-flare, with peak time 02:15 UTC on Jan 13 2025, from SIDC Sunspot Group 360 NOAA AR 3947 (beta-gamma). There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA AR 3947) is the most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and X-class flares unlikely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronální díra

A large east-west elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) started crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Jan 16.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 420 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field has slightly risen to 13 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -8 nT. Enhancements of the solar wind speed are expected in the next 24h, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on 11 Jan 2025.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet over the past 24 hours, with an isolated active period in the beginning of Jan 13 2025, (NOAA Kp 4 and local K Belgium 4). Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor geomagnetic storm levels are expected for January 14.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, even if an increase was observed in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 087, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Jan 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	111 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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