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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
22 Dec 2024	195	021
23 Dec 2024	197	013
24 Dec 2024	199	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. This flare was an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3042) peaking on December 22 at 04:10 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932, beta magnetic field configudation). Flaring activity in the last 24 hours was driven by this AR, and by SIDC Sunspot Group 344 (NOAA Active Region 3930, beta), SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3933, beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3928, beta). There is a new AR rotating into view over the northeast limb that may increase solar activity (also related to CMEs). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo CME erupted at 20:00 UTC on December 21 (LASCO C2), with an angular width of approximately 150 degrees, and was associated with a Type II radio burst. The bulk of the material was directed toward the northeast and originated from a backsided filament eruption; therefore, it will not reach Earth. This event was followed by a wide, faint, backsided CME observed in the southwest (also not Earth-directed) and a series of eruptions from SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932). Related to these eruptions, a faint CME directed southward was observed first at 00:21 UTC on December 22 by LASCO C2. This CME has a low probability of delivering a glancing blow to Earth on December 25. Additional CMEs are likely associated with these eruptions, but confirmation will depend on further coronagraph data. Lastly, another partial halo CME was observed erupting at 04:00 UTC on December 22 toward the southwest. Since no clear signatures are visible on the solar disk, this CME is believed to be backsided and is not expected to reach Earth.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at Earth has reached speeds of 650 km/s (SOHO CELIAS) due to an earlier than expected arrival of a high speed stream from a small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field is around 7 nT (DSCOVR). Similar conditions with elevated solar wind speeds can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 4). Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux has been slightly increasing since around 17:00 UTC on December 20. While it remains below the threshold and will probably not exceed it, the possibility of crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be excluded.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, while it went slightly above it in GOES 16. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 174, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 21 Dec 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	017
Odhadovaný Ap	019
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	163 - Na základě 10 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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