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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jan 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Jan 2025	156	012
12 Jan 2025	156	008
13 Jan 2025	156	004

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an M0.9-flare, peak time 22:46 UTC on January 10, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947). A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 remaining the largest, most active and most complex region. It has decreased its underlying magnetic field complexity and is now classified as magnetic type beta-gamma. Low C-class flaring has been produced by a region behind the east limb as well as from SIDC Sunspot Group 370 (NOAA Active Region 3956), which is classified as magnetic type beta and has exhibited some growth. SIDC Sunspot Group 366 (NOAA Active Region 3951) produced low levels of activity and decayed. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with 55% chances for M-class flaring and 10% probability for isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The filament eruption visible in the SUVI and SDO/AIA data around 20 degrees north from the disc centre starting at about 10:30 UTC on January 09 is not clearly related to any Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs), although a very faint CME propagating southward is visible in LASCO/C2 data around 11 UTC on January 09. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A large long and patchy negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 86) is crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream (HSS) is expected to arrive at Earth on January 14.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly enhanced under the mild influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 9 nT with a minimum Bz value of -8.3 nT. The solar wind speed was varying in the range of 400 km/s to 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain mildly elevated on January 11 and return towards background slow solar wind conditions on January 12. Further enhancements in the solar wind are expected with an anticipated high speed stream arrival on January 14.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to active and locally over Belgium quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with the waning influence of an ongoing mild high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for January 12 and January 13. Quiet to active conditions with probable minor storm levels are expected for January 14.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours with remaining chances for small enhancements pending any strong solar eruptive activity.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal to moderate levels. It is expected to decrease to nominal levels in the next 24 hours and stay at nominal levels in the upcoming days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 103, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Jan 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	190
10cm sluneční tok	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	015
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	129 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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