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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 07 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Feb 2025	184	010
08 Feb 2025	180	007
09 Feb 2025	178	024

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity reached high levels, with four M-class flares and multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M7.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3543) peaking at 09:21 UTC on February 07, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma). There are currently ten numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma-delta), that is largest and magnetically most complex active region on the disk was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978; alpha). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976; beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977, beta), that are currently approaching the west limb. Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88) is crossing the central meridian since February 06.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have reflected a return to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field was below 8 nT. The solar wind speed decreased from values about 500 km/s to 390 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next day, although minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible on February 07 due to possible arrival of a CME that left the Sun on February 02. From February 09, the solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly elevated, due to high speed stream arrival associated with negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-3; K-Bel: 1-3). Conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled, with a chance of reaching active levels on February 07 due to a possible CME arrival. From February 09, active conditions are expected with a possible isolated minor storm interval in response to the high-speed stream arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase if any high energy flares or eruptions occur.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 143, na základě 02 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	165 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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