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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jan 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Jan 2025	174	010
30 Jan 2025	178	011
31 Jan 2025	182	011

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M1.7 flare (SIDC Flare 3395) peaking on January 28 at 19:45 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Regions 3953, 3977). The second largest flare was a M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3401) peaking on January 29 at 04:08 UTC and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 347 (NOAA Active Regions 3935, 3967). The two most magnetically complex regions on the solar disk are SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977), which has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and SIDC Sunspot Group 387 (NOAA Active Region 3974) which has a Beta-Delta magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed at 13:25 UTC on the 28th of January in LASCO-C2 data, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976). This CME is expected to miss the Earth.

Koronální díra

Returning SIDC Coronal Hole 82 (equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) and returning SIDC Coronal Hole 60 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) are continuing to cross the central meridian. A high-speed stream from these coronal holes is expected to arrive to the Earth on January 31.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the Earth was under the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed was around 310 km/s and the total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to 10 nT, with the Bz component reaching a minimum of -8 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions can become disturbed in the next 24 hours due to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on January 25th.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours have reached active conditions locally and globally (K Bel 4 & Kp 4). Active to minor storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 083, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Jan 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	113
10cm sluneční tok	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	015
Odhadovaný Ap	013
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	078 - Na základě 13 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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