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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 25 1258 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
25 Feb 2025	205	012
26 Feb 2025	205	005
27 Feb 2025	205	004

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with a four M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M3.9 flare, start time 21:50 UTC, end time 23:32 UTC, peak time 23:06 UTC on Feb 24, produced by an active region behind the west limb. A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups were identified with SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998) and SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000) being the largest and most complex regions on the visible solar disk. Both regions are classified as magnetic type beta- gamma-delta and have contributed to the M-class flaring activity with SIDC Sunspot Group 408 producing an M3.6-flare, peaking at 11:59 UTC on Feb 25. The remaining active regions are mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with likely M-class flares and 25% chances for X-flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A large almost full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 22:00 UTC on Feb 24. The eruption is related to the long-duration M3.9 flaring from behind the west limb and is associated to type II and type IV radio emissions. The CME is estimated to be back-sided and is not expected to arrive at Earth. A narrow westward CME was observed in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph data around 11:00 UTC on Feb 24. The CME is likely related to an M3.3 flare produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 409 with peak time 07:02 UTC on Feb 24 and a related nearby filament eruption. The eruption is probably related to the on disc coronal dimming signature reported yesterday, Feb 24. The CME is modelled to be directed off the Sun-Earth line with a possible minor glancing blow influence on Feb 27th. No other Earth-directed CME are observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Further data is awaited to check for any possible eruptions related to the recent M3.6 flaring produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 408.

Koronální díra

Several positive polarity coronal holes are now approaching and/or crossing the central meridian. High speed streams emanating from these coronal holes might be expected at Earth on Feb 28th.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected moderately disturbed solar wind conditions, possibly related to an ongoing ICME arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached 17.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -13 nT. The solar wind speed remained below 500 km/s. The B field phi angle has switched orientation from the negative to positive, and back to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly disturbed levels over the next 24 hours with possible mild connection to a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to active and locally over Belgium have registered two isolated minor storm intervals between 19:00 and 21:00 UTC on Feb 24. Predominantly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chances for active periods in case of a mild connection to a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES has exceeded the 10 pfu minor radiation storm threshold around 00:45 UTC on Feb 25th related to the long duration M flaring, peaking at 23:06 UTC on feb 24, and an associated halo coronal mass ejection. The > 50 MeV proton flux showed only minor enhancements and the higher energy proton fluxes have remained at background level. The proton event is currently on the decreasing trend, yet further increase remains possible with ongoing new solar eruptive activity.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 170, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	186
10cm sluneční tok	203
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	016
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	152 - Na základě 13 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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