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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 01 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Feb 2025	217	019
02 Feb 2025	218	019
03 Feb 2025	217	016

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M6.7 flare (SIDC Flare 3428) peaking on January 31 at 14:06 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Regions 3947, 3978). The second largest flare was a M1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 3431) peaking on January 31 at 20:23 UTC and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Regions 3953, 3977). The most magnetically complex and largest region on the solar disk is SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976), which has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. This region also produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977) both have a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed at 14:24 UTC on January 3 in LASCO-C2 data, associated with a M6.7 flare (SIDC Flare 3428). This CME is expected to arrive at Earth on February 04.

Koronální díra

Returning SIDC Coronal Hole 82 (equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) and returning SIDC Coronal Hole 60 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) both started to cross the central meridian on January 28 and are continuing to cross the central meridian.

Solární bouře

In the past 24 hours solar wind conditions at Earth were still disturbed, due to an ICME arrival on January 30 and the arrival of a high- speed stream (HSS), associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 82. The solar wind speed started to gradually increase, around 21:00 UTC on January 31 from 360 km/s to 585 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic ranged from 6 nT to a peak of 19 nT, with the Bz component reaching a minimum of -17 nT. The phi-angle was in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) until 22:15 UTC on January 31 when it switched to the positive sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain under the influence of the ICME and HSS and remain disturbed in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions globally (Kp 4) and locally were quiet to unsettled (K BEL 1-3). Active to minor storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 144, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 31 Jan 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	151
10cm sluneční tok	207
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	146 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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