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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 02 1242 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Feb 2025	190	017
03 Feb 2025	192	019
04 Feb 2025	196	016

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was an M3.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3447) peaking on February 02 at 10:12 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). The second largest was a M2.4 flare (SIDC Flare 3441) peaking on February 01 at 13:19 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Regions 3953, 3977). The active regions SIDC Sunspot Group 388 and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976) is the largest and most magnetic complex region on disk, with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977) both have a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. A faint northeast directed CME observed at 11:24 UTC on February 1 in LASCO-C2 data is determined to be back sided and will not impact the Earth.

Solární bouře

In the past 24 hours solar wind conditions at Earth were still disturbed, due to a high-speed stream (HSS) that arrived on 31 January. The total interplanetary magnetic started this past 24-hour period around 14 nT and then gradually started to decrease around 20:00 UTC on February 01 to around 6 nT The Bz component reaching a minimum of -12 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 580 km/s to 736 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed in the next 24 hours due to the ongoing influence of the HSS and the expected arrival of a CME that left the Sun on January 30.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours globally active conditions (Kp 4) and reached minor storm conditions locally (K BEL 5). Active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 170, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	029
Odhadovaný Ap	033
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	145 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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