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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 04 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Feb 2025	221	012
05 Feb 2025	223	017
06 Feb 2025	225	024

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at high levels, with 8 M-class flares and multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M6.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3480) peaking at 13:18 UTC on February 03, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). There are currently ten numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma-delta), that has grown in size and remains magnetically most complex active region on the disk was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977, beta-gamma). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978; beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 389 (NOAA Active Region 3979; beta) is expected to rotate over the west limb in the next hours. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 23:24 UTC on February 02, directed primarily to the east from Earth's perspective. The CME is likely associated with an M4.1 flare produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow cannot be discarded on the second half of February 06.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (from ACE and DSCOVR) have reflected a return to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased from 10 nT to 6 nT, and the solar wind speed ranged between 410 km/s and 480 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 7 nT, remaining mainly positive. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next day, although minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible on February 04 due to a glancing blow associated with the CME of January 31.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-2; K-Bel: 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet, with a small chance of reaching active conditions over the next 24 hours, due to possible CME arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 171, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	220
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	173 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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